TOTAL VOLUME:

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417,059

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 2PM-2:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$143

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 2PM-2:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 2PM-2:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 2:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 2PM-2:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$143
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, reflecting what traders are willing to bet. It also provides a price history chart, showing how the market has fluctuated over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $143. This allows you to see how much activity there has been recently and gauge the market's momentum. Total volume for this market is $143.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and directional recommendations, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders putting their money where their mouths are. Often, this market can provide an earlier signal of changing expectations than traditional sources, as it directly reflects financial commitment to an outcome. It’s a useful exercise to compare the implied probability from this market with the consensus view of financial analysts covering crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds reflect the aggregate assessment of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their views. The market's price is driven entirely by user activity and reflects real-time sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 2:00 PM and 2:15 PM Eastern Time on October 21, 2026. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from a recognized financial data source.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or disruptions to oil infrastructure (pipelines, refineries) could all cause substantial price fluctuations and, consequently, movement in this market.