TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 1AM-1:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$712

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 1AM-1:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 1AM-1:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 1:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 1AM-1:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T05:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T05:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart visualizing how sentiment has shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $712, and the total volume traded to date, which is $712. This provides a clear overview of how traders are positioning themselves on the future direction of crude oil. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect the latest market activity and insights.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about supply and demand, unexpected events, or simply varying interpretations of available data. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are widely reflected in mainstream financial projections.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and the odds are dynamically adjusted as new information becomes available and trading activity evolves.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:00 AM and 1:15 AM Eastern Time on October 21st. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome for this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 21, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also drive price movements. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant disruptions to oil supply chains, like weather events impacting production or transportation, have the potential to shift the odds in this market.