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410,833

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$461

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 1:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$461
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T05:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T05:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market provides a real-time view of trader sentiment. It tracks the current odds, reflecting the probability of the crude oil price increasing or decreasing by Oct 21, 2026. You’ll also find a price history chart illustrating how the market has fluctuated over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $457. Total volume for this market is $461, indicating the overall interest and participation from traders on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for future crude oil prices, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the same event. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see prediction markets reacting more quickly to new information than analyst reports, potentially offering a more dynamic assessment of future price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by Oct 21, 2026. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see are a direct result of traders’ willingness to pay for a particular outcome, creating a real-time probability assessment.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:30 AM and 1:45 AM ET on October 21, 2026, compared to the price at the start of that period. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, major weather events that disrupt oil production or transportation, or significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could all influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.