TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 12PM-12:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,747

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 12:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 12PM-12:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$1,747
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,733, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,747. This provides a clear overview of how traders are positioning themselves on the future direction of crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental factors like supply and demand reports, this market incorporates a wider range of information and collective intelligence. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of geopolitical events, unexpected economic data releases, or simply the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ identifying overlooked factors. It’s common to see this market anticipating price movements before they are widely acknowledged in mainstream financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The odds are determined by the bids and asks of traders on Predict, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the probability of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:00 PM ET and 12:15 PM ET on October 21st. The final price movement will be verified against credible public sources to determine whether the market resolves in favor of ‘Up’ or ‘Down’.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or surprising inventory data releases from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, macroeconomic indicators like inflation data or shifts in global economic growth forecasts can also impact crude oil prices and, consequently, the trading activity in this market. Any significant disruption to oil supply or a substantial change in demand expectations could lead to rapid price movements.