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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11PM-11:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$543

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11PM-11:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11PM-11:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 11:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11PM-11:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$157
$543
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T03:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T03:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $543, and the 24-hour volume, which is $543. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, showing how the market’s predictions have evolved over time. This information allows participants to gauge market sentiment and make informed trading decisions within this specific market.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders believe will happen. Often, prediction markets can provide a more accurate forecast than polls or expert opinions, as traders have ‘skin in the game’ and are incentivized to be correct. However, it’s also possible to see divergences, where analyst expectations differ significantly from the probabilities expressed in this market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future price of crude oil. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and the odds shift as new information becomes available or sentiment changes. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient market for forecasting the direction of crude oil prices.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 11:00 PM ET and 11:15 PM ET on October 21st. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome for this market, as reflected by the contracts traded on Predict.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies, could cause substantial price swings. Macroeconomic data releases, like inflation reports or economic growth figures, can also influence investor sentiment and affect the price of crude oil. Additionally, unforeseen weather events, particularly hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, have the potential to disrupt oil supply and move this market considerably. Any significant news related to global demand for oil could also play a role.