TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11AM-11:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$318

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 11:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11AM-11:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$199
$318
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T15:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T15:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visualization of these odds, along with the price history showing how they’ve changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $318, and the total volume traded to date, which is $318. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating in this market and how sentiment is shifting.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of perspectives and potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when unexpected events occur or sentiment shifts rapidly. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing allows for a highly responsive and efficient market.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be determined by comparing the crude oil price at 11:15 AM ET on October 21st to the price at 11:00 AM ET on the same day. If the price is higher, the 'Up' outcome prevails; if it is lower, the 'Down' outcome prevails. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds to ensure transparency and accuracy.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in major oil-producing regions, could cause a rapid price shift. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases could have a substantial impact. Even unforeseen weather events, like major hurricanes affecting oil infrastructure, could introduce volatility and influence trading activity in this market.