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413,109

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:45PM-12AM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$493

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:45PM-12AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:45PM-12AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 12:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:45PM-12AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$199
$493
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T03:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T03:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $493, and the total volume traded to date, which is $493. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is changing. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick snapshot of activity in this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when unexpected events occur or when there’s significant uncertainty surrounding the future price of crude oil. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the traders participating in this market, offering a forward-looking perspective on potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the final settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial exchange during the specified timeframe. The direction of price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the resolution date.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, weather events, such as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and shifts in the US dollar’s value are factors traders will be closely monitoring. Any news that alters the supply or demand outlook for crude oil has the potential to shift the odds in this market.