TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$704

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 11:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$62
$704
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T03:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T03:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $704, and the total volume traded to date, which is $704. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as we approach the market’s resolution. The dashboard is a central hub for monitoring activity in this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on complex models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to factors not fully captured in conventional analyses, such as unforeseen geopolitical events or shifts in market sentiment. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the collective expectations surrounding the crude oil price and potential market movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future direction of the crude oil price. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of the likelihood of the price going up versus going down, and changes in price reflect new information or shifts in trader sentiment. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to evolving conditions.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial exchange during the specified time frame. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and settlement details on Predict following verification.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Additionally, inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unexpected disruptions to oil supply chains, such as weather events or pipeline outages, could also trigger substantial price fluctuations and impact trading activity in this market.