TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$471

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 10:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$22
$471
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $471, and the total volume traded to date, which is $471. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events occur. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into how the market perceives risk and opportunity compared to conventional wisdom. This market offers a real-time assessment of probabilities, distinct from static analyst reports.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:30 AM and 10:45 AM Eastern Time on October 21, 2026. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome for this market. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after verification.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, are a primary driver. Unexpected changes in OPEC+ production policies, or announcements regarding US oil reserves, could also have a substantial impact. Macroeconomic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or inflation, will likely influence sentiment. Finally, any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, such as natural disasters or pipeline outages, could cause significant price fluctuations in this market.