TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

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40,428

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4,364

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5

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$177

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 10:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$179
$177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T14:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T14:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down, alongside a price history chart reflecting how those probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $177, and the total volume traded to date, which is $177. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and how sentiment is evolving leading up to the event. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when events are subject to significant uncertainty or are influenced by factors difficult to quantify. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis. This comparison can help you form a more informed opinion.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, causing prices to fluctuate based on supply and demand for these contracts. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 10:15 AM ET and 10:30 AM ET on October 21st. The direction of price movement—up or down—will determine the winning outcome of this market. The platform will verify this data from established financial news sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Macroeconomic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or inflation, can also impact crude oil prices. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and demand forecasts could shift trader sentiment. Any surprise announcements regarding energy policy or major supply chain disruptions could also lead to substantial price movements in this market.