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420,368

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:45PM-10PM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$574

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:45PM-10PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:45PM-10PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 10:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:45PM-10PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$210
$574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T01:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T01:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market—currently $574—and the 24-hour volume, which is $572. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how confidence is evolving as we approach the event on October 20th.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a stable oil price, this market shows traders assigning a probability to either an increase or decrease. This divergence often stems from the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and potential catalysts than a single analyst might consider. It's a valuable comparison point to gauge market sentiment versus expert opinions, especially as unforeseen events can quickly shift expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future direction of crude oil prices. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with more buyers driving the price up and more sellers driving it down. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective intelligence of participants, resulting in a real-time probability assessment of the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:45 PM ET and 10:00 PM ET on October 20th. If the price is higher at 10:00 PM ET than at 9:45 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Geopolitical events, such as unexpected disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also drive price movements. Finally, unforeseen weather events, like hurricanes impacting oil infrastructure, could introduce volatility. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves leading up to Oct 21, 2026.