TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:45AM-10AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$11

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:45AM-10AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:45AM-10AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 10:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:45AM-10AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$11
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 9:45AM and 10:00AM ET on October 20th. You’ll find a visual representation of these probabilities, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, which is currently $11. The total volume traded to date is $11. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential opportunities.

Currently, prediction market odds provide a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the direction of crude oil prices. While analysts often issue point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of traders, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. This can offer a unique signal, particularly when there is significant uncertainty or disagreement among experts. It’s important to remember that both approaches have limitations and can be influenced by various biases.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and trading activity, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 9:45 AM and 10:00 AM Eastern Time on October 20th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical developments in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, are a key factor. Additionally, reports on crude oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or the International Energy Agency (IEA) can cause price swings. Macroeconomic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or inflation, could also influence trader sentiment and impact the price of crude oil futures.