TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$409

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 9:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$206
$409
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T13:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T13:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the implied probability of the price going up or down between 9:15AM and 9:30AM ET on October 20th. You’ll find a live view of the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $410. The total volume traded to date is $409, indicating the level of interest in this particular event. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and adjust their positions accordingly.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term direction of crude oil, with forecasts ranging from a slight increase to a potential dip. This market offers a different perspective, representing the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. If the prediction market odds significantly diverge from these analyst expectations, it could signal that traders have access to information or insights not yet reflected in traditional forecasts. It’s a valuable comparison point for anyone following the oil market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, and this probability changes dynamically as new information becomes available and traders update their views.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:15 AM and 9:30 AM Eastern Time on October 20th. The market will determine if the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window, and that determination will finalize the outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence the crude oil price movement and, consequently, this market. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese import figures), could also shift market sentiment. Finally, any surprising news regarding oil inventories or refining capacity could trigger price fluctuations and impact trading activity in this market.