TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$238,896,186

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,934,485

408,127

Markets across

39,552

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,429

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 8:45AM-9AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$402

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 9:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 8:45AM-9AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$199
$402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T12:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T12:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current odds of the price going up or down between 8:45 AM and 9:00 AM ET on October 20th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $402. The total volume traded on this market is $402. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities based on changing expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While many analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical factors, this market shows a more balanced expectation, with significant volume traded on both sides. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available in standard financial reports. This offers a unique view compared to typical expert opinions.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:45 AM and 9:00 AM ET on October 20th. If the price is higher at 9:00 AM ET than at 8:45 AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical events impacting oil supply (such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions), or surprising economic data releases (particularly those related to global demand) could all trigger substantial price swings. Additionally, any major disruptions to oil infrastructure, like pipeline outages or refinery issues, could also influence trading activity. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential shifts in the crude oil price movement.