TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$588

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 8:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$169
$588
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T00:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T00:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the current 24-hour trading volume of $588. Total volume for this market is currently $588. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities based on recent activity and overall interest in the direction of oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds represent a collective forecast of whether the crude oil price will increase or decrease. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they reflect the wisdom of the crowd and incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives. While analysts may focus on specific economic indicators or geopolitical events, this market aggregates opinions from a diverse group of participants, potentially offering a more nuanced and accurate prediction. It’s important to note that prediction markets are not always in agreement with expert opinions, and can sometimes signal disagreement with prevailing sentiment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future price of crude oil. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades reward correct assessments of the market’s direction. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds closely reflect the current consensus view on the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:15 PM ET and 8:30 PM ET on October 20th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, could cause substantial price fluctuations. Economic data releases, including reports on inventory levels, economic growth, and demand forecasts, will also be closely watched. Additionally, any announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or policy changes could heavily influence the price of crude oil. Finally, major weather events that impact oil infrastructure or transportation could also move this market.