TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$571

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$99
$571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $570, and the total volume traded to date, which is $571. This provides a clear overview of market activity and where traders are placing their bets regarding the future direction of oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental factors like supply and demand reports, this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can quickly adjust to unexpected news or events that haven’t yet been fully factored into analyst models. This difference in approach can make this market a valuable complement to conventional financial analysis when considering potential crude oil price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will go up, the higher the price of 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate diverse opinions and generate a probabilistic forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 7:30 AM and 7:45 AM Eastern Time on October 20th. If the price is higher at 7:45 AM than at 7:30 AM, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final determination will be based on publicly available data from established financial sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, could cause a rapid price shift. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also have a substantial impact. Additionally, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases, or even unforeseen weather events impacting oil infrastructure, are all potential catalysts that traders will be closely monitoring. Any news that alters the perceived supply or demand balance for crude oil has the potential to move this market.