TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$181,481,432

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,827,991,073

405,996

Markets across

40,551

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,368

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$397

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 7:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$58
$397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T11:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T11:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $397, and the total volume traded to date, which is $397. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to this specific commodity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, or unexpected demand shifts. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are fully reflected in consensus analyst estimates, offering a potentially leading indicator.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 7:15 AM and 7:30 AM Eastern Time on October 20, 2024, compared to the price at the start of that period. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, are always a key factor. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels could also cause substantial price swings. Additionally, economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), will be closely watched. Finally, any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, such as major pipeline outages or weather-related impacts on production, could also drive movement in this market.