TOTAL VOLUME:

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

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40,352

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5

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37%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$188

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 6:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T22:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T22:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $187, and the total volume traded to date, which is $188. This allows you to see how much activity there is and how sentiment is changing as we approach the event. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the future direction of crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when significant uncertainty exists. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis. This market represents a forward-looking assessment of probability, distinct from retrospective analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic shifts in the odds.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider at the specified time. The direction of the price change – whether it’s up or down from the opening price on October 20th – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the final verified price shortly after the resolution time.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, could cause price volatility. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand and supply, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory levels could have a substantial impact. Even weather patterns, especially those affecting oil transportation, can play a role in shifting sentiment and moving the market.