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416,910

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 5PM-5:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 5PM-5:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 5PM-5:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 5:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 5PM-5:15PM ET

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$0
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No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T21:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T21:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This information gives traders a real-time view of market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of crude oil prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While some analysts predict a stable price, this market shows traders assigning a probability to both upward and downward movement, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, whereas this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. This difference in approach can lead to varying expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the price moving in that direction. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider during the 5:00 PM - 5:15 PM ET window on October 20th. The direction of price movement within that timeframe will determine whether the 'up' or 'down' outcome is declared.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as unexpected disruptions in oil-producing regions, could cause price swings. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Additionally, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in energy policy could move the market. Finally, any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or unexpected weather events impacting oil infrastructure could also play a role.