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416,910

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$399

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 5:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$9
$399
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T08:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T08:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $399, and the total volume traded to date, which is $399. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard provides a real-time view of what traders believe will happen before Oct 20, 2026.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or access to unique information. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analyst reports, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the future of crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds are not determined by a central authority but emerge organically from the interactions of traders, making it a dynamic and responsive indicator of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the close of trading on October 19th and the close of trading on October 20th, as reported by a major financial data provider. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, can also drive price movements. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases will likely have a substantial impact. Finally, any significant weather events that threaten oil infrastructure, like hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, could also cause volatility in this market.