TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$654

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$51
$654
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T08:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T08:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded – currently $654 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $649. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market’s expectations have shifted over time. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the potential movement in crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market incorporates a wider range of information and collective intelligence. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to unique data. It’s common to see this market anticipating outcomes that diverge from the consensus view of financial experts, offering a potentially valuable alternative signal for understanding future price movements. The market aggregates diverse opinions, potentially identifying overlooked factors.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, making it a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations. Trading volume influences how quickly the price adjusts to new information.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 4:30 AM and 4:45 AM Eastern Time on October 20, 2024, compared to the price at 4:30 AM ET. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected geopolitical developments in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, are key catalysts. Changes in OPEC+ production policies, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and major economic data releases – particularly those impacting global demand – could all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, like hurricanes impacting Gulf Coast production, or shifts in the US dollar’s strength can cause substantial price fluctuations and shifts in this market’s probabilities.