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417,059

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$100

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T20:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T20:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $100. The total volume traded on this market is $100. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track trading activity related to the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events occur or sentiment shifts rapidly. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis, offering a unique view on the future price of crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability distribution. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, reflecting the collective intelligence of participants regarding the future price movement of crude oil.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider at the designated time. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down from its starting point, and the outcome will be verified against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and reliable resolution process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. These include unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical events impacting oil supply routes, shifts in global economic growth forecasts affecting demand, and inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even weather patterns, particularly those affecting oil production or transportation, could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.