TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

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4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$402

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T08:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T08:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $402, and the total volume traded to date, which is $402. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where the crowd believes the price of crude oil will be at the specified time.

Currently, the prediction market offers a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and the average analyst expectation, as the market can quickly incorporate new information and diverse viewpoints. Examining these differences can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements, and assessing the collective intelligence of traders.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future price of crude oil. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will go up, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa for 'down' contracts. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time assessment of market expectations, driven entirely by supply and demand among traders.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider at the specified time. The market will determine whether the price at 4:15AM-4:30AM ET on October 20th is higher or lower than its price at the market’s opening, as reflected in the final contract prices.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), can also have a substantial impact. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any unforeseen weather events that could affect oil production or transportation could all drive price fluctuations and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.