TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-4PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$118

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-4PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, volume is $117. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded to date, which is $118. This allows participants to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of crude oil prices.

Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. If a significant difference emerges between the implied probability from this market and expert opinions, it could indicate that traders possess unique insights or are reacting to information not yet fully incorporated into conventional analyses. It’s important to note that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses when forecasting commodity price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down relative to the price at 3:45 PM ET on October 20th. The final price will be publicly available and used to determine which outcome is considered correct.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 20, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or demand from major consumers like China, can also drive price movements. Unexpected inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or shifts in the US dollar's strength could also influence trading activity in this market. Any news impacting supply or demand fundamentals has the potential to shift the odds.