TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$69

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 2:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$69
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down as of October 20th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the total volume traded in this market, currently at $69. The 24-hour volume is also visible, showing $69 of trading activity. This allows participants to quickly assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipating outcomes that diverge from the consensus view of financial experts, offering a unique signal about potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by October 20th. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price adjusts dynamically as new information becomes available and traders update their positions, creating a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between the opening price on October 20th and the closing price at 2:30 PM ET. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market, and all contracts will be settled accordingly.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions to oil supply in major producing regions, would likely cause substantial price fluctuations. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand, like manufacturing indices or GDP growth, can also have a large impact. Furthermore, announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, or changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, are key signals traders will be watching.