TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 2:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T06:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T06:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down by the specified time. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding this event.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see prediction markets incorporating information more quickly than traditional forecasts, especially regarding unforeseen events. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the crude oil price. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds closely align with the perceived likelihood of the event, offering a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 2:15 AM and 2:30 AM ET on October 20th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome of this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, weather events that disrupt oil production or transportation, such as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, could influence the price. Any significant news impacting supply or demand dynamics has the potential to move this market.