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420,368

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 12:45PM-1PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$481

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 12:45PM-1PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 12:45PM-1PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 1:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 12:45PM-1PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$481
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T16:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T16:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the total volume traded in this market – currently $481 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $480. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and track activity related to this specific prediction question. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for future crude oil prices, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a probabilistic forecast. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. This market represents a forward-looking assessment of probability, based on real money at stake, differing from retrospective analysis often found in standard forecasts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower on October 20th between 12:45PM and 1PM ET. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. Higher demand for the 'up' contract, for example, will drive up its price and the implied probability of an increase in crude oil prices. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) during the specified timeframe of 12:45PM to 1:00PM Eastern Time on October 20th. The direction of the price change – up or down – relative to the opening price will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, could trigger substantial price swings. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and even weather patterns affecting oil transportation could all move this market considerably.