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410,482

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 1:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

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Settled
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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear overview of how traders are positioning themselves on the direction of crude oil prices leading up to the event. The dashboard is updated in real-time to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, the collective prediction on Predict offers a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing expectations as probabilities. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments than slower-moving analyst reports. This allows for a dynamic comparison of sentiment and potential outcomes regarding the future price of crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts based on supply and demand, meaning if more traders believe the price will go up, the 'up' contracts become more expensive, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations based on the collective judgment of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:15 AM and 1:30 AM ET on October 20th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant news regarding supply chain issues or refining capacity could all contribute to price volatility and impact trading activity in this market. Traders will be closely monitoring these developments.