TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$188

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 11:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $183. The total volume traded on this market is $188. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the potential direction of crude oil prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or the inclusion of non-public information. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially offering insights beyond standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The odds you see represent the probability of a 'yes' outcome (crude oil price going up) implied by the current contract prices, with the remaining probability assigned to a 'no' outcome (crude oil price going down).

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 11:30 AM ET and 11:45 AM ET on October 20th. A price increase will result in a 'yes' outcome, while a price decrease or no change will result in a 'no' outcome. The final price will be sourced from a recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as unexpected disruptions in oil-producing regions, or announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, are key catalysts. Macroeconomic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or inflation, can also impact oil prices. Furthermore, unexpected changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or demand forecasts could shift trader sentiment and move this market. Any significant news impacting the supply or demand balance for crude oil is likely to have an effect.