TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$144

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 11:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$243
$144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down, visualized as odds. You'll also find a price history chart showing how the market has priced in different outcomes over time. The 24-hour trading volume is displayed, indicating how much activity is happening in this market. Currently, the total volume is $144 with $144 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential biases. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur. Currently, the question is whether the market will outperform or underperform compared to prevailing expert opinions regarding crude oil price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 11:15 AM ET and 11:30 AM ET on October 20th. The final price movement will be verified against credible public sources to determine whether the market correctly predicted an increase or decrease in price during that timeframe.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in oil-producing regions, such as supply disruptions or political instability, could cause rapid price fluctuations. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP figures), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could move this market considerably. Finally, major weather events impacting oil infrastructure are also potential catalysts.