TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 10PM-10:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$647

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 10PM-10:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 10PM-10:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 10:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 10PM-10:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$397
$647
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $640. The total volume traded to date is $647. This information allows traders to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in conventional analyst reports, offering a potentially leading indicator of price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of the crude oil price moving up or down. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people bet on a particular outcome, the price of that outcome’s contract increases, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:30 PM ET and 10:15 PM ET on October 20th, 2024. A positive change indicates the price went up, while a negative change indicates it went down. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases would likely have a substantial impact. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in oil-producing regions, could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), and inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration are key catalysts. Any surprise shifts in these areas could lead to significant changes in the market’s probabilities.