TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$244,077,041

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,901,278,909

407,043

Markets across

39,548

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,422

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$678

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 10:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$7
$678
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T02:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T02:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $678, and the total volume traded to date, which is $678. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to future crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different view than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for the price of crude oil, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market incorporate information faster than traditional forecasts, potentially offering a more up-to-date perspective on the likelihood of price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, providing a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:30 PM and 10:45 PM Eastern Time on October 20th. The market will determine whether the price went up or down during that 15-minute window, based on publicly available data from established financial sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or even weather forecasts predicting major storms that could disrupt oil infrastructure, could all contribute to price volatility and shifts in this market’s probabilities.