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420,368

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-10PM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$21

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-10PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-10PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 10:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-10PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T01:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T01:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, currently at $21, and the total volume traded to date, which is $21. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in broader analyst consensus, or to demonstrate a different level of confidence in a particular outcome.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of the price going up or down is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, providing a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial exchange during the specified time window. The direction of the price change – whether it’s up or down from the starting price – will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their predictions.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also influence price expectations. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or significant changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could also drive substantial movement in this market. Furthermore, any major weather events impacting oil infrastructure could play a role.