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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:45AM-10AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:45AM-10AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:45AM-10AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 10:00 AM EST

predict

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:45AM-10AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current implied probabilities of the price going up or down, as determined by traders. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total 24-hour volume of $0. The total volume traded on this market is currently $0. This allows you to see how much activity there is and how confidence in either direction is changing as we approach the event on October 19th.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market offers a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend, the current odds reflect a more nuanced view. It’s important to remember that analysts often rely on models and reports, while this market represents the aggregated judgment of individuals incentivized to make accurate predictions. This difference in approach can lead to diverging expectations about the crude oil price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more these prices will reflect the prevailing sentiment and any new information that emerges. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, which impacts the overall probabilities.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:45 AM and 10:00 AM Eastern Time on October 19th. A price increase will result in a positive outcome, while a price decrease will result in a negative outcome for this market. The final price change will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any significant announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels will likely influence trader sentiment. Even unexpected weather patterns that threaten oil infrastructure could cause shifts in the odds for the crude oil price movement.