TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

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$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

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4,364

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5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$75

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the implied probability of the price going up or down, based on trading activity. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $75. The total volume traded on this market is $75. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it's changing leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend, this market shows a more nuanced view, with traders weighing various factors. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and polls or analyst opinions, as markets aggregate diverse information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. This dynamic can provide a valuable alternative viewpoint when considering potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, allowing for a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:30 AM and 9:45 AM Eastern Time on October 19, 2026. A positive price change indicates the price moved up, while a negative change indicates it moved down. The final price change will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, would likely have a substantial impact. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or even weather events impacting oil infrastructure, are all potential catalysts that could influence the crude oil price movement and, consequently, trading activity in this market.