TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$50

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 8:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T12:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T12:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $50. The total volume traded to date is $50. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential opportunities. The dashboard also displays a price history, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, giving insight into how the market is reacting to news and information.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders responding to a wider range of information, including news, sentiment, and even subtle signals not captured in standard models. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and biases. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are reflected in consensus analyst ratings, or to assign different probabilities to the same outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of the traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the outcome occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood. Traders can execute trades at the prevailing market price, influencing the odds with each transaction.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:15 AM and 8:30 AM Eastern Time on October 19, 2024, compared to the price at 8:15 AM ET. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be verified against credible public sources.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or escalating conflicts, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also shift sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory levels from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will likely cause price fluctuations. Even unexpected weather patterns impacting oil infrastructure could move this market.