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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 7AM-7:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$16

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 7AM-7:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 7AM-7:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 7:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 7AM-7:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T11:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T11:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $16, and the total volume traded to date, which is $16. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for the crude oil price, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market incorporate information more quickly than traditional forecasts, as traders react to news and events in real-time. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the price going up, with the remaining probability assigned to the price going down. Traders are constantly updating their positions, incorporating new information and adjusting their expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 7:00 AM ET and 7:15 AM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 7:15 AM ET than at 7:00 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or supply, could also have a substantial impact. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or shifts in inventory data from the Energy Information Administration are other factors to watch. Even significant weather events, like hurricanes impacting oil infrastructure, could influence trading activity in this market.