TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 6AM-6:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 6AM-6:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 6AM-6:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 6:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 6AM-6:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T10:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T10:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with a price history chart showing how they’ve changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this particular commodity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential factors. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events or geopolitical factors come into play. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis, offering a unique perspective on the future price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:00 AM and 6:15 AM Eastern Time on October 19, 2026, compared to the price at the market’s open. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine which outcome is considered correct and will trigger payout to the winning contracts.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, are always a key factor. Unexpected changes in global demand, driven by economic growth or recessionary fears, could also cause substantial price swings. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and even major weather events impacting oil infrastructure could all move this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in trader sentiment.