TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$144

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 6:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T22:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T22:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $144—and the 24-hour volume, which is $140. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market’s expectations have shifted over time. This provides a clear overview of how traders are assessing the potential direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market incorporates a broader range of information and collective intelligence. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when unexpected events or “black swan” scenarios are considered. This market allows traders to weigh these factors and express their beliefs, potentially offering a more dynamic and real-time assessment than static analyst reports. Examining these differences can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:30 PM and 6:45 PM Eastern Time on October 19th. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds and verified against credible public sources.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 19, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also cause substantial price swings. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any unforeseen weather events impacting oil production or transportation could influence trading activity. Any news related to major oil companies or shifts in global energy demand will likely move this market.