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419,363

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$21

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 5:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T09:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T09:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $21—and the 24-hour volume, which is $21. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market’s expectations have shifted over time. This provides a quick overview of trader sentiment regarding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term direction of crude oil, with forecasts ranging from slight increases to potential declines, largely influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and global demand concerns. This market offers a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to produce a probability-based forecast. While analyst opinions can be valuable, they are often subject to individual biases, whereas this market reflects a collective assessment of all available information, potentially offering a more accurate signal of future price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in one direction or the other. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to new information.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 5:30 AM and 5:45 AM Eastern Time on October 19, 2024, compared to the price at the market's open. The direction of the price change—up or down—will determine the winning outcome of this market, as determined by publicly available price data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any disruptions to oil supply chains—such as weather-related issues or pipeline outages—could trigger substantial price movements and, consequently, shifts in the odds within this market. Traders will be closely monitoring these developments.