TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

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$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$53

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 4:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T08:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T08:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down. It also provides a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $53, and the 24-hour volume is $53. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to unique data. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analyst reports, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly translating into implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These probabilities are influenced by various factors, including global economic conditions, geopolitical events, and supply/demand dynamics within the oil market. The platform’s mechanism ensures that the odds reflect the collective judgment of all participants.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 4:15 AM and 4:30 AM Eastern Time on October 19, 2026, compared to the price at the start of that period. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome for this market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, would likely have a substantial impact. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global growth or inflation, could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, significant disruptions to oil supply, whether due to natural disasters or infrastructure failures, are potential catalysts. Any news impacting global demand, like a major recession or a breakthrough in alternative energy technologies, could also influence trading activity.