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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2PM-2:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2PM-2:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2PM-2:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 2:15 PM EST

predict

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2PM-2:15PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a history of how these odds have shifted over time, reflecting trader sentiment. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how actively traders are engaging with this particular question about future oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility based on geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions, this market reflects a more nuanced view based on the collective judgment of traders. It's common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd, as this market aggregates diverse information and perspectives not always captured in standard financial analysis. This difference highlights the unique insights available through predictive markets.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, incorporating new information and influencing the overall market price. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on October 19th and the closing price at 2:15 PM ET. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine which outcome is considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels would likely have a substantial impact. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in major oil-producing regions, could also cause significant price fluctuations. Additionally, economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand, like manufacturing indices or inflation reports, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, any major disruptions to oil supply, such as pipeline outages or weather-related events, could also drive movement in this market.