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413,109

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 2:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the probabilities assigned by traders, the total volume traded—currently $0—and the 24-hour trading volume, which is $0. This allows you to see how sentiment is shifting and gauge the market's expectations. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, showing how the probabilities have changed over time, offering a visual representation of market activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when unexpected events occur or when there’s significant uncertainty surrounding the future price of crude oil. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, with more traders buying a particular outcome driving up its price and decreasing the probability of the other. The current volume of $0 indicates the level of participation in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on October 19th and the closing price at 2:30 PM ET on the same day. The market will determine whether the price has gone up or down during this period, and the outcome will be reported accordingly. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand and inventory levels, can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or unforeseen weather events affecting oil infrastructure, could all contribute to price volatility and shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market. Any news impacting supply or demand will likely be priced in quickly.