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420,368

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 2:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 1:45AM-2AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a live feed of trading volume, currently at $0 over the last 24 hours, and the total volume traded to date is $0. The dashboard also displays the evolving odds as traders buy and sell contracts, reflecting their collective predictions. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing price targets and directional guidance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market react more quickly to new information than traditional forecasts, as traders continuously update their positions based on the latest developments.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified resolution time. The price of each contract directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people buy contracts predicting an increase, the price of those contracts will rise, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the specified time window. The final price movement will be verified against credible public sources to determine whether the market resolves in favor of ‘Up’ or ‘Down’.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or significant changes in inventory levels reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, are likely to move the market as well.