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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 12:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T04:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T04:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of prices going up or down, providing a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets. You’ll also find a price history chart illustrating how the implied probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $0, giving you a sense of overall interest and participation. This information helps you understand market sentiment and potential price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analyst reports, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the future direction of crude oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the price will rise, the higher the 'yes' contract price will climb, and vice versa for the 'no' contract. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time forecast of future price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 12:30 AM and 12:45 AM ET on October 19th. A price increase will result in a 'yes' outcome, while a price decrease will result in a 'no' outcome. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also trigger price swings. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant weather events impacting oil infrastructure could move this market. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold, as they all have the potential to shift market sentiment and trading activity.