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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 11AM-11:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$11

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 11:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 11AM-11:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T15:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T15:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $11. Total volume for this market is $11. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it’s changing as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a clear visual representation of where traders are placing their bets.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into how the market perceives risk and opportunity, and whether it anticipates factors that analysts may have overlooked. This market provides a unique, forward-looking indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and it’s constantly updated as new information emerges. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 11:00 AM ET and 11:15 AM ET on October 19th. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, and that determination will be based on publicly available data. Traders will then be paid out based on the accuracy of their predictions in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unforeseen weather events affecting oil production or transportation could all contribute to price volatility and shifts in trading activity within this market. Any news impacting supply or demand will likely be reflected in the odds.