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417,059

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 10:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a quick overview of market activity and where traders are placing their bets regarding future price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often present a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders responding to a wider range of information, including news events, geopolitical factors, and even subtle shifts in market sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate information more quickly and efficiently than traditional forecasting methods. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into potential market biases and uncertainties.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the platform automatically adjusts the probabilities to ensure a fair market. Traders are constantly updating their positions, leading to dynamic price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:30 AM and 10:45 AM Eastern Time on October 19, 2026, compared to the price at 10:30 AM ET. The market will determine whether the price went up or down during that 15-minute window, and payouts will be issued accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price change.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Additionally, major weather events that disrupt oil production or transportation, and even shifts in the US dollar’s strength, can all influence trader sentiment and cause the odds to fluctuate. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential market movements.