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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 10:30 PM EST

predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

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N/A
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—
$99
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Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T02:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T02:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down as of October 19th at 10:15 PM - 10:30 PM ET. It also provides a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $0, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, analysts are split on the direction of crude oil prices, with some predicting a slight increase due to geopolitical tensions and others forecasting a decline based on concerns about global economic growth. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. If the prediction market odds significantly diverge from expert opinions, it may indicate that traders have access to information or insights not yet fully incorporated into traditional forecasts. It's a real-time gauge of belief about the outcome.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect changing expectations regarding the future price of crude oil. The current implied probabilities are visible on the market dashboard.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:15 PM and 10:30 PM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 10:30 PM than at 10:15 PM, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected news regarding OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or shifts in global economic data (like inflation or manufacturing numbers) could all cause substantial price movements. A sudden surge or drop in demand due to unforeseen circumstances, such as a major weather event impacting oil infrastructure, could also play a role. Traders will be closely monitoring these signals and adjusting their positions accordingly, leading to fluctuations in the market's implied probabilities.