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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET - Predict

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Negative

Neutral

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·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 9:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T01:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T01:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0, indicating overall interest. This information allows traders to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and directional predictions for crude oil, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of perspectives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in price before they are reflected in mainstream analyst reports, offering a potentially leading indicator of future movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of the likelihood of each scenario, providing a dynamic and real-time gauge of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:30 PM and 9:45 PM Eastern Time on October 18th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to view the verified result on Predict following the resolution time.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any unforeseen weather events affecting oil infrastructure could drive price fluctuations and shift sentiment in this market.