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408,643

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET - Predict

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·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 8:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T00:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T00:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves before the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are issuing predictions about the future price of crude oil, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This can lead to a more accurate forecast, as traders are incentivized to be correct. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, with this market sometimes anticipating moves before they are reflected in mainstream analyst reports. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the price increasing. Traders can use this information to assess potential opportunities and manage their risk.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:30 PM ET and 8:45 PM ET on October 18th. The final price will be compared to the opening price to determine whether the market goes up or down. The resolution process is designed to be objective and transparent, ensuring a fair outcome for all participants.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, could cause a rapid price shift. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Additionally, any announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases could have a substantial impact. Finally, major weather events that threaten oil infrastructure or shipping routes could introduce volatility and influence trading activity in this market.